Wednesday 29 February 2012

Analysis: Super Tuesday Will Not Help Clear up The GOP Race

Analysis: Super Tuesday Will Not Help Clear up The GOP Race: Beginning in 1988, when Michael Dukakis beat his main rival Democrats in many States in March primary, "Super Tuesday", as a rule, plays a crucial role in determining the presidential candidates of both parties.

This year will not be.

This is because the mechanics in the 2012 Republican race begin to resemble those in the 2008 Democratic nomination fight is a fight to grind out for delegates who can last through most of the spring.

Republicans are reluctant about this realization, even before the results of the primary Tuesday night in Michigan and Arizona.

"It's confusing," said Jack Lindley, chairman of the Republican Party in Vermont, one of 10 primary assembly and states that will vote on Tuesday. "Mitt Romney may pick up the most delegates on Super Tuesday, it will be from state to state, drip on the drip. It's like water torture. "

Romney 'won by enough,' but is that all that matters?

Romney continues to lead his enemies to the delegate hunt, adding at least three dozen of his total after winning Rick Santorum in Michigan and Arizona.

But with 437 delegates at the table next Tuesday, and most of them divided into shares of votes each candidate, the four candidates of the Republican Party are sure to increase their number of delegates, giving everyone in the area of ​​study, however slim, to move forward.

Super Tuesday map has two bright spots and pitfalls for each candidate - Romney is expected to coast to easy victories in Massachusetts and Virginia, for example, but faces a tough routine in such states as Ohio and Tennessee - that means no one can go out as winner, when the smoke clears.

Since none of the candidates with the side benefit of all, few disputed the state will be disproportionately important.

Grand-day Ohio.

Although the state has 10 delegates short of Georgia, Ohio, holds enormous symbolic significance, as both are a general election and the Republican field.

Ohio will have to check each candidate's ability to connect with the voters of the Republican Party of all stripes - from rural life, the preservation of small-town white working class, to soften in the affluent suburb near the city of Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Santorum trailed Romney by double digits in Ohio before his victory Tuesday night in the neighboring state of Michigan, where the state Santorum had hoped that his blue-collar pitch to resonate.

Santorum was interrupted Romney in Michigan and became a much needed victory in a month, underscoring its weakness as a candidate, but Republicans say Ohio Romney way to rocky.

Romney embossed in October last year on the ballot shall take measures restrict trade union rights of public sector, which was adopted by the GOP-controlled legislature and supported by Ohio Governor John Kasich, who do not intend to support the candidate.

His rhetorical dance around the issue - he refused to take a position on a controversial bill before approving it on the next day - has drawn sharp criticism from conservatives.

"Romney suffers from the same tender feelings among Republicans in Ohio, as it is all over the world," said a senior figure in the Republican Party of Ohio, which does not support a candidate in the race. "And remember that a large group of this state is mainly in the vicinity of western Pennsylvania, where Santorum was the wheelhouse."

The University of Cincinnati, published on Tuesday, a survey shows that 37% of potential voters of Ohio GOP primary backing Santorum, with 26% support and 16% for Romney, Newt Gingrich.

About 11% of Republican voters said they support the Ohio Ron Paul, who still do not win the contest in this series, but it may finally low turnout of assembly states, like North Dakota and Alaska.

Rates, of course, higher for Gingrich, who is pinning its hopes on Super Tuesday by deflating loss Romney in Florida in January.

Since then, the conservative Santorum was against Romney while Gingrich coat limp in February to take part in several southern states, where his campaign, Georgia hopes that its roots and bold conservative rhetoric would appeal.

On Sunday, Gingrich said the victory in Georgia is "central to the future of our country," a tacit acknowledgment that nothing less than victory in his home state could derail his candidacy spray.

Ralph Reed, GOP strategist and former chairman of the Republican Party of Georgia, Gingrich said, should be considered a favorite here because of its long-standing goodwill with party veterans and their approval of the governor's term course Nathan congressional delegation of the state.

But Reed Gingrich slip in the polls nationally may make it vulnerable Santorum enough to steal a victory in the state of the conservative, where 76 delegates at stake

"Because it has not won anything since Newt South Carolina, and because people are looking for alternative final conservative Mitt Romney, Rick may try to enter Georgia in search of Killshot" Reed said.

In Georgia, Gingrich campaign in hopes of catching the delegates from Ohio (66), Tennessee (58), Oklahoma (43) and parts of Idaho (32), where the delegates awarded on the basis of the district County.

Although his candidacy is in much better shape than Gingrich, next week will also be shown some basic tests for Romney.

He was all-but-certain to win his home state of Massachusetts (41) and Virginia (49), where only he and Paul was right to vote.

Romney also has to perform well in Idaho, where the voters who supported the Mormon former governor of Massachusetts with a large margin in the previous contests may not exceed 30% of the votes of assembly, some Republicans in the state.

But the primaries in Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia can once again draw attention to the relationship with the ice Romney hidebound conservatives.

"Romney's just not aligned with the Republican primary voters here," said Chris Wilson, a Republican sociologist, based in Oklahoma. "This is a conservative primary voters, and one in which they are in search of a more conservative candidate in the primary."

The defeat of Romney in South Carolina earlier this year questioned his ability to win over conservatives in the South Block of the most reliable GOP vote in the general election - if he wins the nomination, finally.

His speech in the southern states on Tuesday could either suppress some of these problems or exacerbate them.

"Romney should show a lift in the south, and not just in Virginia," said sociologist Republican Ed Goeas. "Ohio will be a great battle on the same day, but I also look to see what is happening in Tennessee and Georgia."

Republicans believe that Super Tuesday will not determine the party candidate, but it may well set the contours of the emerging Republican race.

Briefly Gingrich in the south and Romney are not able to demonstrate the dynamics, Santorum could plausibly make the Republicans for the last conservative status.

He said this is so, even after his loss in Michigan.

"This is a two-man race right now," Santorum said Tuesday. "It is quite clear."

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